The 100,000 usd/jpy has been closed 6pips ahead. I'd hoped for a sustained appreciation to 116.40+ but doubt this will happen prior to the session close. The Dow never made it above its open (8,635.31) , and so we've seen a retracement of earlier dollar gains.

eur/jpy has been shorted for 100,000 units from 117.10 , stop 117.55 . I'm expecting a return to 116.5 , perhaps prior to the Tokyo session. Also the usd/chf limit order Long 100,000 from 1.45 has been activated . This currently stands 1pip ahead.

Bal: 101,748.47 ::: P&L: 1,724.51 + (-132.88)
short CHF 145,000 , EUR 100,000 ::: long JPY 11,710,000 , USD 100,000

current trades :
S eur/jpy from 117.10 , stop 117.55 , tp 116.03
L usd/chf from 1.45 , stop 1.4480 , tp 1.4595

I've entered a Long for 100,000 usd/jpy from 115.89, stop 115.70. The pair had peeked above 116 a moment ago and may be staging a return to 116.40 or beyond.

Today's economic news was rather good IMO .

Greenspan's testimony is here

synop. :
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says that absent further shocks, the U.S. economy is poised for sustainable growth, though depressing effects still linger. In addressing the falling dollar, he cautioned against overinterpreting its drop. He also said that corporate governance problems could hurt business efficiency, and more reports of corporate misdeeds may continue to surface. Moreover, he reiterated the fact that price inflation has fallen to its lowest level in four decades. Fed estimates for US Real GDP are 3.56-3.57% in 2002, 3.5-4.0% in 2003. Price Index 1.5-1.75% in 2002, 1.5-1.75 % for 2003. Jobless rate 5.75-6.00% in 2002, 5.52-5.50% in 2003.

June Industrial Production rose 0.8% (exp 0.4% prev revised to 0.4% from 0.2%).
June Capacity Utilization 76.1% (exp 75.7% prev revised to 75.6% from 75.5%).

Last night's trades worked well yielding $1,625.59 to bring the account balance up to $101,778.88.
The only trade that had failed was a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd from 1.01 that stopped at 1.0110.
The usd/jpy trades closed in the 115.70's and at 115.55. The usd/chf trade took profit at 1.4504.

The only open trade is a usd/chf short from 1.4531 for 50,000 that I'd placed shortly after noon (EST) hoping to catch a retracement to 1.4500 from 1.4550.

** this trade was stopped while I'd been writing this , looks as though the Dow is about to exceed its open. USD is responding positively across the board. Notice the account revision below.

Bal: 101,696.38 ::: P&L: 1,672.79 + (0)
no open trades
current trades :
none

Evening Round-up

We're up $268.79 on the account and $241.66 in realized P&L w/ no open trades.

We'd gotten walloped on the 200,000 eur/usd limit order long @ .9995 . I had expected a correction from the 1 - 1.0050 range to either the low .9900's or into the .9800's; the trade was stopped @ 1.0055 ( - $121.00 ) . Rather that retrace , the euro proceeded virtually unabated to 1.0090. It's currently at 1.0040 . The Tokyo and London sessions may push this above 1.01 if the dollar resumes its decline.

Dollar limit orders @ 116.09 (100,000), 115.74 (100,000) , 115.79 (10,000) , which had replaced the original usd/jpy Long trades from the low 117.00's , saved the day by returning $534.61when closed shortly after the close of the NY session for 116.21 and 116.23. A 100,000 usd/chf Short from 1.4583 placed at about 11:00 am , that closed at 1.4556 an hour later, provided $185.49 to bring the account from last night's low of 99,514.62 to 99,700 . The remainder of today's profits are entirely attributable to the usd/jpy trades.

Tonight should prove interesting - will the markets experience buyer's remorse and sell the euro , or will such a robust break above parity inspire Euro bulls to begin climbing for 1.0250 ?

I'm watching eur/jpy for a break below 116.5 as an opportunity to short towards 115.

lessons for the day :
stop loss orders are good
chasing interventions downhill is annoying and inefficient - use limit orders instead.